Quantum computing is definitely not a sprint, but a marathon

 Quantum computing is definitely not a sprint, but a marathon.

Look at business with a point of view. Super opinion, from the cutting-edge observation of new business practitioners

Guests of this issue

Guo Guoping, Deputy Director of the Key Laboratory of Quantum Information, Chinese Academy of Sciences; Founder and Chief Scientist of Origin Quantum Computing Company

Luo Le, Professor, School of Physics and Astronomy, Sun Yat-sen University

Fang Chen, Senior Investment Manager of Paradise Silicon Valley

Edit｜He Linjian

Core viewpoint:

1. Quantum is a science, not metaphysics. It is a description of a certain physical state, and a quantum computer is a machine that can complete quantum computing tasks.

2. In classical computers, most of us discuss physical bits, but real quantum computers are actually logical bits. At present, both at home and abroad, what they are doing basically remains at the stage of physical bits. In this sense, there is no real quantum computer yet.

3. We now need to carry out quantum technology science popularization to attract more optoelectronic industries, chip industries, machinery industries, and micro-electromechanical industries to join them, so as to form substantial and effective attention and truly promote the development of quantum computing in our country .

Editor's note: This article is organized from 36Kr LIVE content, with deletions. Click here to watch the full live broadcast >> 

Quantum, quantum computing and quantum computers

Guo Guoping: Quantum is a subject, a science, not metaphysics. It is a description of a certain physical state, so the word quantum does not specifically appear in quantum mechanics.

Quantum computing is an application in informatics. For example, information is divided into collection, transmission, and processing. Quantum computing is a computing method that uses the principles of quantum mechanics or the characteristics of quantum states to improve information processing capabilities. Use the state of the quantum state to encode, process, and read information. This is quantum computing.

A quantum computer is a machine that can complete quantum computing tasks. Of course, we should not think that quantum computers are just hardware. For our current computers to be able to run, we still need software at various levels. The most intuitive ones are operating systems, application software, and underlying software. Therefore, quantum computers should refer to the general term for software and hardware that can implement quantum computing.

Luo Le: I want to emphasize why we attach so much importance to quantum computing now. What we all know well is that quantum computing has powerful computing power, which is actually relative to classical computing. Classical calculations rely on Boolean algebra, where bits are either 0 or 1. Quantum is a microscopic particle. There are superposition states and entangled states in microscopic particles, which are countless superposition states between 0 and 1. This superposition state makes a single bit contain much more states than classic bits. These bits can produce a mutual entanglement relationship, so quantum computing is like an innate, inherent parallel computing maintained by the laws of physics.

Quantum computing breaks through Moore's Law?

Chen Fang: When I was investigating quantum before, I heard two metaphors. The first is that quantum computing breaks through Moore's Law. The second is that the principle of quantum can be explained by Schrödinger's cat. What do the two teachers think about these two points?

Luo Le: Quantum computing can break through Moore's Law, which is rather vague. Moore's Law mainly refers to the development of microelectronic technology, especially the development of microelectronic chips. As time increases, the number of transistors integrated per unit volume will double, and the price will correspondingly drop by half. Quantum computing is actually on a different track from the classical computing of microelectronics. We did not simply make transistors smaller and smaller, but adopted a completely different architecture.

Guo Guoping: Regarding the first question, I think Moore's Law is a law of economics, and it describes a development law of integrated circuits. Quantum is not realized by hardware superposition or parallelism, so they are not the same thing. Of course, quantum will also have its own laws.

Regarding the second question, the reason why quantum computing is magical, or the reason I think it is a discipline, stems from its physical foundation, that is, the characteristics of quantum states. Take a bit as an example. In quantum, this bit can be in a state where 0 and 1 are superimposed in any ratio, and the phase can also be adjusted. In a bit of classical computing, it can only be at 0 or 1. In quantum, half of the probability of a bit is 0, and the other half of the probability is 1. This is also the reason why the principle of quantum can be linked to Schrodinger's cat. The superiority of quantum mechanics and quantum computing lies in the state of quantum superposition. Quantum entanglement is actually the result of the superposition of multi-bit quantum states, and quantum superposition is the fundamental property.

Real quantum computers: from physical bits to logical bits

Guo Guoping: There is no real quantum computer now. In classical computers, most of us talk about physical bits, but real quantum computers are actually logical bits. The difference between logical bits and physical bits is that physical bits have an error rate, such as one in ten thousand, or even one in thousand.

Only one or more physical bits can be encoded to form real bits, that is, logical bits. So from the perspective of this concept, whether at home or abroad, what they are doing basically stays at the stage of physical bits. Of course, they are already experimenting with logical bits. Therefore, we say that there is no real quantum computer yet.    

Luo Le: Since last year, many kinds of quantum computer systems have been developed around the world, including superconductivity and trapped particles. Some or a large part of them have been developed on general-purpose quantum computers. The quantum logic of universal quantum computers is universal and can solve a class of universal quantum algorithm management problems. The development of quantum computers is now at the critical point of transitioning from physical bits to logical bits.

Different paths to quantum computing

Fang Chen: Now there are different paths in quantum computing. For example, Mr. Guo is doing semiconductor and superconductor paths, academician Pan is doing optical paths, and scholars are studying ion trap paths. What are the advantages and disadvantages of different paths? in?

Guo Guoping: At present, there is no definite answer as to which physical system is more suitable for quantum computers. Many people are exploring various paths, not just in schools or research institutes, but Google and IBM are exploring. Intel, TSMC , and Wright of France are also exploring semiconductors. Microsoft has also spent a lot of energy in doing this.

Now these physical systems, none of them can be proved in principle, it must not work. So everyone has not converged to a certain path. If they can converge to a path and humans focus on it, maybe they can achieve better results.

The development of any technology should actually be a gradual process. In a sense, our physical systems are compatible with existing information technology industries, such as semiconductors, chips, and existing integrated circuits. In other words, the compatibility or inheritance of its craftsmanship, technology, equipment, and talents.

Currently, companies with different backgrounds pay attention to each physical system. But in terms of the development of disciplines, the emergence of a new thing requires a foundation. Therefore, the future quantum computer is unlikely to be completely separated from the classical computer, or not use any of the existing integrated circuits. In this sense, it is necessary to consider its compatibility and inheritance.

Which physical system is better or better is a false proposition in a sense. Regarding quantum computers, I personally always insist on a point that, at least for the foreseeable time, it will not replace classical computers, or in other words, it and classical computers should be a complementary process. In this sense, it is somewhat similar to AI. AI chips are based on ASCII, GPU or other architectures. These AI chips do not have to be unified to a specific architecture or physical system. Each physical system is worth exploring, but when exploring, we all aim at solving a certain practical task and demand, so it should be meaningful.

Luo Le: There are many different physical systems in the development of quantum computers. I personally think that they can be divided into three types: one is the photonic system we are very familiar with; the second is related to atomic physics, which is cooled by laser in vacuum The imprisoned atom and ion system is based on atoms and ions; the third system can be summarized as an electronic system, whether it is a superconductor or a semiconductor, it is an electronic structure.

Each of these three systems has its own advantages and disadvantages. As early as 20 years ago, five criteria for quantum computing were proposed in the field of quantum computing, and later two criteria for so-called quantum networks were proposed. These systems may meet certain criteria better. For example, in terms of integration, superconductivity and semiconductors have advantages. In terms of the coherence of a single qubit, the trapped ion system has its advantages. We are still at a preliminary stage. We must take a long-term perspective to continuously improve and develop various systems to solve the tasks under various systems. Quantum computing is definitely not a sprint, but a marathon. So in the initial stage of the marathon, we should pay attention to various systems, including some new ones.

Don't be afraid to make a bold idea. Maybe the real quantum computing system in the future will be completely different from our classical quantum computing system. For example, it may be a single, composed of semiconductor chips. In the future, quantum computing may be a hybrid system, which includes atoms that store quantum information, superconducting and semiconductor structures for large-scale processing, and photons that can transmit between nodes. The final architecture of quantum computers may be richer and more complex than the systems on which classical computers now rely.

Quantum computing applications

Guo Guoping: The current quantum computer may be like the steam engine that humans have just developed. The steam engine at that time may only have the power of 0.001 horses. The application of quantum computers now is like we are now taking a steam engine with only 0.001 horses and trying to put it on a carriage, so don’t expect it to run faster than a carriage. The evaluation criteria for useful and useless are actually different. Some people think that without a horse, this car can move, which is extremely useful. But from another point of view, since you can't run a carriage, it's useless to work so hard.

It is actually difficult to judge useful and useless. But from a scientific point of view or the country's encouragement of independent innovation, we should explore the application of quantum computing in different industries. Especially for the practical problems in our daily lives, to find some algorithms and find some possibility to solve the problems.

Fang Chen: If quantum computers can really achieve the performance we want in the future, where is the biggest application field?

Guo Guoping: Don't use our vision and vision today to limit our offspring. Just like when classic computers were first developed, many people asked Einstein what computers would look like in the future. Einstein's answer at the time was: Maybe only two computers are needed in the world. Therefore, we should not use today's vision and vision to measure future things.

Luo Le: Computing is first of all an information science. The advantage of quantum computing over classical computing is its computing power. The first use of a quantum computer is to process massive amounts of data through its computing power.

Now is the era of big data. To give a simple example, everyone has a lot of genetic sequencing. We have a population of 5 billion, and the entire genetic quantity of 5 billion people is a very large amount of data. If you use general computers, machine learning, and in-depth analysis of data, it is difficult to complete this task even if it is supercomputing. Such issues include some complex financial systems, including various sensors in smart cities, and other issues connected with big data. With massive amounts of data, the existing supercomputing is difficult to deal with in terms of energy consumption and architecture. Since a quantum computer is a computer, its biggest application is still in data processing.

Maybe in the future society, there will be a number of quantum computers, either distributed or centralized, to gather all kinds of information from the world for processing. This may be a vision. Mr. Yao Qizhi, Turing Award winner, said: The future of information science is very simple, that is, quantum computing plus artificial intelligence. I think this also reflects one of the largest applications of quantum computing.

The competitive landscape of quantum computing from an international perspective

Fang Chen: What is the competitive landscape of quantum computing on a global scale? How does the domestic quantum computing level compare with the foreign quantum computing level?

Luo Le: From a global perspective, the United States has certain opportunities. In 2010, I was also a post-doctoral research scientist in the United States. At that time, the United States began to arrange large-scale quantum computer research and development projects in various directions such as superconductivity and ion traps. The United States has already made arrangements at the national level ten years ago. Five years ago, or even earlier, a number of large companies, such as IBM, Google, and some start-ups, began to carry out enterprise, engineering, and commercial operations. Therefore, in the current global quantum computing landscape, the United States has a certain opportunity.

Guo Guoping: Actually, it is not just quantum computing. From quantum key distribution, to quantum computing, to quantum sensing, we must admit that these were not first proposed by our domestic researchers. Generally speaking, the gap between domestic and foreign countries in the field of quantum computing is quite obvious.

There are many reasons for the gap. The first reason is that we started late. We are a little late for the start of concepts and the exploration of principles. The second reason is that our attention and investment are not enough. From the perspective of the entire research on quantum computing, the domestic investment or attention is still a little less than that of foreign countries, or is it even effective attention. The third reason is the lack of practical application research. I have repeatedly emphasized that the research of quantum computing is oriented towards solving practical problems. The research and development of a truly useful quantum computer requires investment. More research is still in our country, or the principle of exploration to transitive explore top management issues, which we have already chasing almost the same. However, we must admit that there is still a big gap in the exploration with the goal of practical usefulness.

Luo Le: Although quantum computing is very hot in China, effective attention is far from enough. This requires the opening up of the upstream and downstream industrial chains, including some traditional technologies. Traditional industries have joined quantum computing to empower quantum computing. We are very lacking in this respect. Therefore, we now need to carry out quantum technology science popularization, so that more engineering and technical personnel can understand, so as to attract more optoelectronic industries, chip industries, machinery industries, and micro-electromechanical industries to join them, so as to form substantive and effective attention. In order to really promote the development of quantum computing in our country.

Quantum computer research

Chen Fang: What do you think of Honeywell’s announcement of the world’s most powerful computer?

Luo Le: We cannot actually use a single indicator to measure the performance of a quantum computer. For Honeywell, its so-called most powerful may be based on a certain quantum volume index. The quantum volume index is only one of the measurement factors. To truly measure a quantum computer, it must be combined with reality. If it can solve a certain problem well, it may be said that it has a relatively powerful function on this problem. It has not yet reached the same stage as the mobile phone running score. Even at that stage, running score is not the only measure.

Chen Fang: At present, companies in the industry are still in the process of research, can it be understood that they have not been able to compete directly?

Guo Guoping: Major companies, including IBM and Google, are comparable in terms of superconductivity, but they are not completely comparable. Including Honeywell and Intel are studying semiconductors. I think who can solve the practical problems of our human production and life is good.

Fang Chen: IBM's quantum cloud is very popular abroad, and Quantum has recently launched a quantum cloud service. Many people may not be able to afford quantum computers. Can the application of quantum clouds be seen as an opportunity?

Guo Guoping: The so-called quantum cloud is a service method, and its core is based on quantum computers. Of course, like the source released a 32-bit, 64-bit simulator in February 2018, it is not a real quantum computer, but a supercomputing simulation. But in September, a 6-bit real superconducting quantum computer was released. Based on this superconducting quantum computer cloud service platform, it allows most people or anyone to access and experience a 6-bit real quantum computer from the network.

Can it solve practical problems, or is it really useful? I believe that its experience value, science value, and the development value of quantum computer software and application algorithms are greater than the actual problems that it can solve as a small number of bit computers. Cultivating habits, cultivating users, promoting languages, and establishing ecology are a very important role of cloud computing.

Luo Le: Due to the complexity of quantum computers, it is difficult to associate quantum computing with computers at this stage. Even like IBM or Google, their current integration can only reach the level of teller machines or instrument cabinets. Except for some major customers, such as the military and NASA, it is difficult for any user to spend tens of millions or millions of dollars to move a cabinet home. Most people are only familiar with Quantum through the form of cloud and online feedback. Calculation.

Education itself is a very big use, and the cultivation of ecology can prepare for the explosion of quantum computers in the future. When things suddenly break out, then you can't catch them anymore, so we have to plan ahead and be prepared for this.

Demystify the economics behind the bull-bear conversion, teach you when to buy the bottom / escape the top Bitcoin

 There are invisible hands behind BTC manipulating bull and bear.

Will the U.S. election really push Bitcoin up? Is it a historical law or a coincidence? With the reduction of block rewards for miners, can the "halving bull market" still stand? What are the economic principles behind the four-year halving of Bitcoin? The market changes in bulls and bears, how can we use these laws to escape the top and the bottom? This article will take you to interpret the invisible hands behind Bitcoin from an economic perspective.

Speaking from the "bull market" of the US election

Ryan Watkins, an analyst at the research institute Messari, believes that the previous U.S. elections will push the price of Bitcoin to rise. Watkins marked the Bitcoin trend chart after Obama and Trump came to power in the picture. Looking at the picture alone, this inference seems to be correct. However, relying on the trends after only two elections to summarize the laws is hardly sufficient evidence. Even if it is reasonable and relevant, why would the US election affect Bitcoin? After all, from the perspective of the entire financial market, Bitcoin is still very niche, and the relevance of US policy to Bitcoin is actually very weak (and difficult to prove). However, there is really a "coincidence" between the previous US elections and the trend of Bitcoin, and there is an interesting correlation.

Is "halving the bull market" still reliable?

Before revealing the answer, let's take a look at a long-term Bitcoin halving bull market chart. Since the birth of Bitcoin, it has experienced three halvings, namely: the first halving (2012.11.18), the second halving (2016.07.09), and the third halving (2020.05.13). Before and after the first two halvings (when blue turns red), a "halving bull market" occurred.

Among the supporters of the "halving bull market" view, the domestic representative is Lebit mining pool Jiang Zhuoer. He believes that the long-term net supply of Bitcoin is only the output of miners, and the net demand is the demand for the purchase of coins by newcomers who are constantly entering the market. When the demand does not change suddenly, the supply will halve instantly, which will inevitably lead to an increase in the price, and then it may The formation of the "news ↔ bull market effect", the positive cycle continues to attract newcomers and new funds to enter the market. At the end of a bull market, when the market sentiment is frenzied and the bubble is serious, and the short-term currency price increase exceeds the speed of newcomers and new funds entering the market, the bubble of the bull market will burst and the bear market will begin. The design of Bitcoin's output halving every 4 years makes the "bull bear cycle" and the "halving cycle" resonate.

It can be seen that the important theoretical basis of the "halving bull market" is: when demand does not change suddenly, supply is halved instantly, which will inevitably lead to an increase in prices. Is this theory still valid after this round of Bitcoin halving?

Let's look at the supply and demand of Bitcoin after the next three halvings. From the perspective of the supply side, the block reward of Bitcoin has changed from 50 BTC per ten minutes to 6.25 BTC now, which means that the original miner selling pressure (calculated by the number of coins) has become 1/8 of the previous one. Of the 21 million bitcoins, about 18.538 million have been dug up; from the demand side, the number of coin holder addresses can more accurately reflect the overall change in the current number of bitcoin holders, and it was halved for the first time The number of coin-holding addresses at the time was 996,506. At the third halving, the number of coin-holding addresses was 30247715, and the number of coin-holding addresses increased by about 30.4 times. From the observation of the changes in the number of new Bitcoin addresses, it can also be seen that the number of new users has indeed increased in different orders, and it is still in a state of continuous rapid growth.

It can be seen from the data that the supply and demand forces of the Bitcoin network have undergone obvious asymmetric changes. The net supply force caused by the halving is getting weaker and weaker, and the growth of the demand side is getting stronger. Even if estimated by conservative data, the growth rate of the demand side is much greater than that The declining speed of net supply and the rise in the price of Bitcoin are more of a result of growth on the demand side. It can be seen from the number of coin-holding addresses and the number of new addresses that the obvious growth of the two is not affected by the "halving bull market", but has inherent logic and rhythm.

In the first two halvings, the ecology of the Bitcoin network is relatively simple, mainly miners, and the market selling pressure also mainly comes from the mining income of miners. When the block reward is halved, the mining income of miners will suddenly decrease. This will indeed have a greater impact on the price of the currency and make people feel like a "halving bull market". This is also the main basis for this theory.

With the reduction of block rewards, the motivation of miners to maintain the network will shift from relying on block rewards to relying more on fee income. (Odaily Planet Daily Note: In the Bitcoin network, the income of miners is mainly divided into two parts, one part is block rewards, and the other part is fee income for processing transfer transactions.) The change in the main source of miners' income implies Bitcoin The economic relations in the network are undergoing profound and complex changes. Miners have gradually changed from the role of "currency" distributors to the role of network service providers. This shift will further prove that the "halving of the net Bitcoin supply has spawned a bull market" gradually becoming less effective.

As a large number of bitcoins are mined, the theory of "halving the bull market" will gradually become a "historical illusion."

Although the basis for the "halving bull market" has weakened, the phenomenon still exists. This is mainly due to the economic principles behind the Bitcoin network.

The invisible hands behind Bitcoin

At the beginning, we introduced that there is a very interesting relationship between the US election and Bitcoin. In fact, this relationship is a four-year cycle. Bitcoin halves every 4 years, and the US election is every 4 years. This design is not accidental, but in line with the capitalist economic cycle. This is like a bull and bear with invisible hands manipulating the market.

The short capitalist economic cycle (also known as the Kitchin cycle) is only 3-5 years. The American economist Kitchin believes that the development of the capitalist economy will regularly fluctuate up and down every 40 months. The economist Schumpeter uses this short cycle as a method to analyze the capitalist economic cycle, and uses the cycle changes of inventory investment and the small fluctuations in innovation (especially the changes in equipment that can be produced quickly). Explain the Kitchin cycle. He also believes that 3 Kitchin cycles constitute a Jugala cycle, and 18 Kitchin cycles constitute a Kondratiev cycle.

After three production cuts, Bitcoin not only entered a small cycle again, but also at the beginning of the second mid-cycle.

(Odaily Planet Daily Note: I need to explain here that we consider Bitcoin as a commodity to discuss, and we believe that it has certain currency-like attributes. The reason for this assumption is that its high volatility is not suitable As a currency; in addition, from the current demand side, it is more traded and stored as a commodity or investment product. Although it involves a part of payment, the currency attribute is still not the main growth demand at present. In this assumption Under the circumstances, Bitcoin is more of a commodity attribute, and miners are production and service providers, that is, the supply side.)

The internal basis of the Kitchin cycle is that the demand shock of commodities is passive and external, while the supply adjustment is active and internal. Therefore, the different changes in demand and supply (inventory) form four cyclical stages: passive Inventory, active restocking, passive restocking and active destocking. In the bull-bear conversion process of Bitcoin, these four cyclical phases are also in line.

• When the market demand for Bitcoin increases, the price begins to rise, and the increase in mining profits stimulates the influx of more miners, and the miners’ inventory is too late to respond, so sales increase and passively destock.

• The Bitcoin market demand has expanded significantly, the price has risen significantly, and the mining revenue has become more lucrative. Miners are expected to start to actively increase their inventory.

• Bitcoin market demand has begun to weaken, prices have stagnated and fallen, mining profits have fallen, miners have no time to shrink production, and sales have fallen, leading to passive increases in inventory.

• Bitcoin market demand has further shrunk, prices have fallen, and mining profits have further reduced. Miners expect negative expectations and actively reduce inventories.

How to use the inventory cycle to judge the Bitcoin bull-bear cycle?

To put it simply, when miners sell at discounts and miners sell mining machines in the market, it actually means that the bear market has basically bottomed out; when mining machine manufacturers are producing mining machines at full capacity, the mining machines on the market There is still a great demand, and the payback period of mainstream mining machines has been greatly shortened. In fact, it may be very close to peaking.

Specifically, we can observe the peak signal of the bull market of Bitcoin by calculating the static return days of the mining machine (the price of the mining machine divided by the net income per day), and the signal of the bottom of the bear market can be observed by the difficulty of mining. In addition, we can also use the proportion of mining electrical and mechanical expenses to judge the bull-bear transition.

Regarding the peak index, Jiang Zhuoer once proposed a mining machine bubble index, which judges the bull market peak signal by calculating the static return days of the mining machine. The inherent logic of the index is that if the speed of industrialized production of mining machines is far behind the rate of increase in currency prices, it means that currency prices are rising too fast to be sustainable. It uses S9 as an example to introduce this important indicator. As shown below:

In the figure, 2016 and 2017 during the bull, S9 back to the static stability at 200 cycles to 250 days, every day Lee Run stable at $ 5. However, in December 2017, S9's payback cycle quickly dropped to around 100 days, and its daily profit soared from 5 yuan to 20 yuan, which showed a clear peak signal.

The mining difficulty zone proposed by Willy Woo is composed of a set of different periods of Bitcoin mining difficulty polylines, which is a good visual indicator of bottoming out. The theory believes that when miners dig bitcoin, they need to sell some of the coins to pay for electricity and other costs. However, as the price of the currency continues to fall, some miners will choose to shut down when they cannot afford to pay, and finally leave the most powerful one Some miners continue to mine. As the miners shut down, the computing power and mining difficulty of the Bitcoin network will decrease, and the difficulty band will shrink, and when they converge, there will be a better bottoming buy indicator.

In addition to the above indicators, it is also possible to judge the peak and bottom market by observing the proportion of electricity bills of mainstream mining machines. The proportion of electricity bills represents the most important electricity bill of miners. When the proportion of electricity bills is too high, part of the mining machines will have the strongest computing power in the market, which means that the market has entered the bottom; The currency price continues to rise, more mining machines on the market have begun to enter the mining mode, and the proportion of electricity costs has dropped significantly, which means that the market bubble is serious.

Where does Bitcoin's market demand come from

Digital migration is the demand of our age. The development of blockchain technology follows the same trend. Bitcoin network is the first successful application based on blockchain technology. With the development of blockchain technology, the market demand of Bitcoin Will continue to expand.

This year, central banks of various countries released a large amount of water during the new crown epidemic, making the already risky traditional financial system even more precarious. As the impact of the epidemic accelerates in the digital age, central banks are stepping up the development of their own digital currencies and trying to form a new digital financial payment system. However, the most successful, safe and time-tested digital currency is still Bitcoin. Financial tycoon JP Morgan Chase pointed out in a recent report that institutional investors such as family wealth management funds have begun to regard Bitcoin as a digital alternative to gold. In the future, the market demand for Bitcoin is still very large.

On the other hand, under the DeFi boom, the total number of bitcoins currently anchored on Ethereum is about 150,880, which is developing extremely fast. Bitcoin is constantly being given new value in more and more DeFi. Its essence is a wealth migration in which technology drives financial innovation, financial innovation generates market demand, and demand pushes up prices. With the gradual construction and improvement of the blockchain infrastructure this year, more blockchain applications will begin to explode, and the demand and value of Bitcoin will also experience greater growth.

What kind of revolution will the advent of quantum computing lead to?

Quantum physics has changed our lives. Because of the invention of lasers and transistors-both are products of quantum theory-almost every electronic device we use today is a real-world example of quantum physics. As we tried to use more quantum world power amount of the occasion, we may now be on the verge of a second quantum revolution. Quantum computing and quantum communications can affect many industries, including healthcare, energy, finance, security, and entertainment. Recent research predicts that the quantum industry will reach billions of dollars by 2030. However, we need to overcome major practical challenges to achieve this large-scale impact.

Quantum and tradition

Although quantum theory has a history of more than a century, the current quantum revolution is based on the recent realization that uncertainty—the basic property of quantum particles—can be a powerful resource. At the level of individual quantum particles, such as electrons or photons (particles of light), it is impossible to know exactly every attribute of the particle at any given moment. For example, the Global Positioning System (GPS) in your car can tell you your location, speed and direction at the same time, and it is accurate enough to get you to your destination. However, quantum GPS cannot accurately display all the properties of an electron at the same time, not because of design flaws, but because the laws of quantum physics do not allow it. In the quantum world, we must use probabilistic language, not deterministic language. In a computing environment based on bits such as 0 and 1, this means that qubits may be 1 or 0 at the same time.

This imprecision is disturbing at first. In our daily traditional computers, 0 and 1 are related to the closing and closing of switches and electronic circuits. From a computational point of view, it doesn't make much sense to not know whether they are closed or closed. In fact, this can lead to calculation errors. However, the revolutionary idea behind quantum information processing is that quantum uncertainty-the fuzzy superposition between 0 and 1-is not actually a loophole, but a characteristic. It provides new means for more powerful communication and data processing methods.

Current quantum communication and quantum computing

Probabilistic quantum theory mass made as a result of quantum information can not be precisely replicated. From a security perspective, this is a game changer. Hackers who attempt to copy the quantum key used to encrypt and transmit information will be frustrated, even if they have access to a quantum computer or possess other powerful resources. This basically unbreakable encryption is based on the laws of physics, not the complex mathematical algorithms used today. Plus math secret techniques can be very powerful enough computer to crack, but crack quantum cryptography will need to violate the laws of physics.

Just as quantum encryption is fundamentally different from current encryption methods based on mathematical complexity, quantum computers are fundamentally different from current traditional computers. The difference between the two is like a car and a carriage. Compared with horse-drawn carriages, cars are based on the use of different laws of physics. It allows you to reach your destination faster and allows you to go to a new destination that you could not reach in the past. Compared with traditional computers, quantum computers can be said to be the same. Quantum computers use the laws of probability of quantum physics to process data and perform calculations in a new way. It can complete certain computing tasks faster, and can perform new tasks that were impossible in the past, such as quantum teleportation, that is: the information encoded in quantum particles will disappear somewhere, and then it will Recreate precisely (but not instantaneously) in another remote place. Although this sounds like a science fiction story, this new form of data transmission is likely to become an important part of the future quantum Internet.

A particularly important application of quantum computers may be the simulation and analysis of molecules in drug development and material design. Quantum computers are particularly suitable for this task because they operate on the same laws of quantum physics as the molecules they simulate. Using quantum devices to simulate quantum chemistry may be more efficient than using today's fastest traditional supercomputers.

Quantum computers are also perfect for solving complex optimization tasks and for performing fast searches on unorganized data. This can be significant for many applications, from the collation of climate, health or financial data, to the optimization of supply chain logistics, labor management or traffic flow.

Prepare for the quantum future

The quantum race has already begun. Governments and private investors around the world have invested billions of dollars in quantum research and development. The onboard quantum key distribution encryption technology has been demonstrated, laying the foundation for the establishment of a potential global communication network based on quantum security. IBM, Google, Microsoft, Amazon and other companies are investing heavily in the development of large-scale quantum computing hardware and software. No one has achieved the goal yet. Although small quantum computers are now in operation, one of the main obstacles to expanding this technology is dealing with errors. Compared with binary bits, qubits are incredibly fragile. Even the slightest interference from the outside world is enough to destroy quantum information. This is why most of the current machines need to be carefully protected in an isolated environment, and their operating temperature must be much lower than the temperature of outer space. Although a theoretical framework for quantum error correction has been developed, putting it into practice in an energy-saving and resource-saving manner has brought major engineering challenges.

Considering the status quo in this field, it is unclear when or if the full capabilities of quantum computing will be realized. Even so, business leaders should consider developing strategies to deal with problems in three main areas:

Develop a quantum security plan. The current data encryption protocol is not only fragile for future quantum computers, but also fragile for more powerful traditional computers. New encryption standards (whether traditional or quantum) are inevitable. The transition to a quantum security architecture and supporting infrastructure for data security requires planning, resources, and quantum expertise. Even though quantum computers may be 10 years away from us, it will be too late to wait until then to adapt. The time to start this process is now.

Identify use cases. No one has foreseen that traditional computers will affect every aspect of our lives in countless ways. Predicting quantum applications is also challenging. This is why in order to fully tap the potential of quantum computing, business leaders and experts in different industries such as health, finance or energy must establish contacts with quantum researchers and hardware/software engineers. This will promote the development of quantum solutions for specific industries, which are tailored based on existing quantum technologies or quantum computing that can be widely promoted in the future. Interdisciplinary expertise and training are essential to the establishment and development of quantum application stores.

Give full consideration to responsible design. Who will develop and use quantum technology, and how will users interact with it? The impact of artificial intelligence (AI) and blockchain has shown that it is necessary to consider the social, ethical and environmental impact of new technologies. Now is the early stage of the quantum industry, which provides us with a rare opportunity to implant inclusive practices from the beginning to develop a responsible and sustainable roadmap for quantum computing.

The rapid development of quantum technology in the past five years is exciting. However, the future is still unpredictable. Fortunately, quantum theory tells us that unpredictability is not necessarily a bad thing. In fact, two qubits can be locked together in some way, so that, individually, they are still uncertain, but when combined, they are completely synchronized-both qubits are either 0 or both 1. . This combined certainty combined with the unpredictability of its own—a phenomenon known as quantum entanglement—is a powerful stimulus for many quantum computing algorithms. Perhaps this also provides a reference for how to establish a quantum industry. By planning responsibly, while also accepting future uncertainties, companies can increase their chances of preparing for the quantum future.